Economic Valuation of PM2.5-Attributable Mortality in Delhi, 2010-2030: A Benefit-Transfer Analysis Using the IER Model
Kajal Sharma¹*, Prof. Himmat Singh Ratnoo²†, and Surender Kumar³†
¹ Research Scholar, Department of Economics, Maharshi Dayanand University, Rohtak, India
² Retired Professor, Maharshi Dayanand University, Rohtak, India
³ Academic Administrator, Ashoka University, Sonipat, India
Corresponding author: Kajal Sharma, Email: kajalsharma.rs.eco@mdurohtak.ac.in
† These authors contributed equally as second authors.
Abstract
Delhi experiences persistently high concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), with substantial implications for public health and the economy. This study quantifies the economic value of mortality burdens attributable to PM2.5 exposure in Delhi over 2010-2030 using the Integrated Exposure-Response (IER) model and a benefit-transfer approach to the Value of a Statistical Life (VSL). A benchmark VSL of US$9.4 million (2015 prices) is transferred to the Indian context via purchasing power parity (PPP)-adjusted GDP per capita and an income elasticity of 1.0; values are expressed in 2024 INR (₹) using the average exchange rate. Annual welfare losses are estimated for three exposure scenarios-Observed, Business-as-Usual (BAU), and WHO Air Quality Guideline (AQG)-and then aggregated to cumulative totals and avoided losses.
Results indicate that annual PM2.5-related welfare losses increased by ~40% between 2010 and 2020 (₹94,800 crore to ₹133,000 crore). Under BAU, losses rise to ~₹158,000 crore by 2030; under WHO-aligned air quality, they fall to ~₹80,500 crore. Cumulatively, the observed trajectory amounts to ~₹17.7 lakh crore (2010-2024), with an additional ~₹9.1 lakh crore projected for 2025-2030 under BAU; these losses are largely avoided under WHO compliance. Sensitivity checks varying income elasticity (0.8-1.2) and adjustment factors (0.3-0.5) preserve scenario rankings. The findings demonstrate large, quantifiable economic dividends from achieving WHO guidelines and provide a transparent baseline for policy evaluation in Indian megacities.
Keywords – PM2.5; mortality; value of statistical life; benefit transfer; air pollution; Delhi; IER model; cost-benefit analysis; welfare loss; WHO-AQG
DOI link – https://doi.org/10.69758/GIMRJ/2510I10VXIIIP0007
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